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✨ Pricing; Costs; Finances

Aging in Place
Richmond

Since COVID-19, many seniors are living in their homes, hoping to age in place and avoid leaving their familiar neighborhood and friends. As a self-help idea, virtual "Aging in Place Villages" have been organized to facilitate the support services elderly people need. Read Blog Post


What, if any, opportunities or risks does this business model pose to managed residential communities?


Richmond Shreve

NaCCRA Board Member

Forum Moderator

Kay Roberts

“Aging in Place Villages” will vary. Some will be good. In my experience, there are problems where there are other people. The more they can provide essential services like caregivers, transportation to appointments, and food the more they will compete with CCRCs.

Susan Farkas

I am a volunteer for a Village. Villages do not provide caregivers (any kind of help that is "hands-on") because they are concerned about liability. They also do not provide food (other than connecting villagers to other organizations like Meals on Wheels or by initiating "food drives" after a villager comes out a hospital).


Regardless, they can be very helpful for socializing and with some services (some transportation, help around the house, help with computers, etc,) dependent on the village's capabilities and policies. I do not believe that they are a competition for CCRCs - as an organization. NORCs (mostly in Canada), build healthcare related partnerships and offer many more services that further the mission (enabling seniors to age in their home).

Philippa Strahm

Kay,


You said " 'Aging in Place Villages' will vary. Some will be good. In my experience, there are problems where there are other people."


What do you mean by "there are problems where there are other people." ?

Philippa Strahm

It seems to me that to the extent that Villages make it easier to age in place, for those who desire to do so, they compete with CCRCs by diminishing the population attracted to CCRCs.


Although Villages don't provide direct care, their members who otherwise would have gone into a CCRC are now going to be getting that care from non-CCRC sources. What effect, if any, will this have on CCRCs' ability to compete for staff (CNÅs, etc.) for their assisted living and skilled nursing facilities?


Maybe some kind of hybrid arrangement will emerge. Or it may already have. I have heard of the "CCRC without walls" concept.

Kay Roberts

Phillips, People always disagree and seem to cause disagreements. The more people, the more disagreements.

SocialWorkerMO

Looks like we are in a period of rapid and significant change, with the retirement industry in the thick of it. Expectations are high for the development of hybrid models that are new and innovative, as well as adaptive to needs. Here is a brief summary of projected trends from earlier this year.


"Kathleen Steele Gaivin Chat GPT.docx": This document contains an article by Kathleen Steele Gaivin dated January 19, 2024, discussing Fitch Ratings' outlook on continuing care retirement communities (CCRCs). Fitch's outlook for CCRCs is "deteriorating," largely due to staffing and wage pressures, as well as inflation in supplies and housing costs. This outlook is characterized as "negative" or "cautious," but there are potential positives such as demographic trends favoring communal living for baby boomers and CCRCs' flexibility in adjusting services and rates.

Phil Carlton

Can you forward this article to phil@philcarlton.com.


Thanks.

Kay Roberts

Pls forward this article to robertskay@yahoo.com

Susan Farkas

The article can be attached and everyone interested can benefit from it....

Michael Brooks

I don't know where SocialWorker got her article from (Chat GPT?), but I found an article that seems like what she mentioned.


Let me know, or delete if this is not allowed?


Click this link: Fitch offers bleak outlook for life plan communities for 2024


It's from mcknightsseniorliving.com Written by Kathleen Steele Galvin, dated Dec 5, 2023. Here is the story copied and pasted:


Continuing care retirement / life plan communities are facing “fierce economic headwinds” heading into next year, according to a report released Monday by Fitch Ratings.


Fitch is unwavering at this time in its “deteriorating” outlook for the sector, citing decelerating real estate price growth and inflationary operating expense pressure among the sector’s biggest impediments. According to the report, to revise the outlook to “neutral,” the sector would have to demonstrate improvement in staffing numbers as well as the efficacy of measures leading to “stable” or “improving” ratings.


“Demographics are still supportive of healthy demand in terms of [life plan community] occupancy, though staffing is still very much a sore spot contributing to much of the expense pressures for [life plan communities],” Fitch Senior Director Margaret Johnson said Monday in a statement.


Johnson noted that although life plan communities have experienced flexibility relative to hospitals in responding to staffing challenges, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ proposed minimum staffing ratios for nursing homes are expected to exacerbate staffing pressures, “though not enough to adversely affect ratings.”


CCRCs have so far been able to pass along higher costs to residents. For example, communities with significant skilled nursing components have reduced their number of beds to help keep finances in the black. 


“However, occupancy and demand could soften if rate increases continue above historical norms or if cost-cutting erodes service quality. Decelerating growth in real estate pricing may also slow the current strong pace of independent living unit (ILU) sales and limit an LPC’s ability to raise entrance fees to absorb cost inflation and pay refunds,” according to the report.

Keep an eye on mergers and acquisitions activity heading into 2024, according to Johnson.


“Inflationary and economic pressures are driving smaller providers to seek the benefits of partnering with a larger system to shore up the benefits of economies of scale,” she said.

Michael Brooks

Here is more information: A podcast from bakertilly.com. An interview with Margaret Johnson, senior director and the senior living sector lead at Fitch Ratings, by Mark Ross, dated Feb 27, 2024.


It can be listened to on your computer as an audio recording. (I didn't listen to it yet)


Healthy Outcomes: The Life Plan Communities Outlook for 2024 - Baker Tilly

Richmond

Michael,

Thanks for finding these valuable articles. This overlaps the "Pricing, Costs, and Finance" topic and represents an important threat that managed communities must address to be sustainable.


Richmond Shreve

NaCCRA Board Member

Forum Moderator

Michael Brooks

Thank you, Richmond. This thread strayed from it's original question.


First, after thinking about it, I am guessing that SocialWorker's article might have been an AI "generated" answer to the question she asked AI? So, she received that document as an answer? So, she might be the only recipient, and it is not a public document, unless she shares it with those who requested her to? I don't know this for sure, as I don't go to chatgpt. But, I would also be a little worried about facts presented by AI, as sometimes they are not reliable.


I have listened to the podcast (recording) that I posted yesterday. It is a half hour interview, and covers a lot of information coming straight from the source (Fitch).


Here is more information of value about fee increase predictions. Ziegler published the results from their survey of CCRC CEOs in late Sept 2024. The report (and other reports that they create weekly) can be found at:

Newsroom | Ziegler


I encourage all our members to look at Zieglers website, under Newsroom.


Attached below is a picture of the survey response for 2025 fee increase predictions (see attachment called zieg chart of inc)


Attached below is a picture of the highest mentioned reasons for future increases( see attachment called zieg fee incr drivers)


The Ziegler report also contains some good reponses from CEOs comments (on the last page of the Ziegler report)

See attached pdf called ziegler cfo hotline report


Lots of good info,

Mike


Kay Roberts

I listened to the podcast that was attached and found it hard it hard to listen to since its I was unable to subscribe to Healthh Outcomes. Can someone help?audience is mainly consultants/professionals in senior living and not meant for most residents.

Michael Brooks

It DOES appear that the baker-tilly and ziegler websites are written for the CEOs of the CCRC and LPC (Life Plan Commun). I did not try to subscribe to the sites to receive new articles when they are posted. The "subscribe" page from baker-tilly does have a blank for "company name". It might just allow you to sign up if you try? Or put in a fake company name?

The fact that these newsletters are able to be found on the internet seems to support that they are available to all internet users: in other words, this info is in "the public domain".



But, I do like reading the corporate newsletters, as it gives me an idea of what things run through the minds of our CEOs. And the Ziegler survey shares ideas of what is behind the decisions made by CEOs. And I'm not sure whether the CEOs of our CCRCs ever share their decision making strategies with residents?


Disclaimer: I am not yet a resident of a CCRC, but my wife and I are fixing up our house and hope to join one in the new year.

Jim Fennessey

As far as getting on the mailing lists, NaCCRA already uses several email addresses such as president@nacra.com and treasurer@naccra.com,. These addresses can appropriately be used to subscribe to industry sources.

Michael Brooks

But, Jim, if someone signs up for receiving news from a website (bakertilly), then the newly released stories will go to "president@naccra.com". That is not helpful to the individual, such as Kay.


I just tried subscribing to the bakertilly website, and it accepted me. The "Corp name" field filled itself in with the word "self", so bakertilly already allows individuals to sign up for their recurring news releases. The sign up procedure allows the user to select what types of stories to receive.


That said, they did not have a category for CCRCs or Life Plan Communities. The closest thing to it was Healthcare Provider. I suspect I'm going to get a lot of info sent to my email that is of no interest to me, and by next week, will have unsubscribed.

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